Rules

Points have no cash value, and you cannot lose real money here. Monthly community play can help direct a site-funded climate resilience donation, but players cannot cash out points. Nothing on these pages is a financial product. This is a forecasting game, not a betting service, and it is not regulated as one.

Every market asks a yes-or-no question about tomorrow’s weather. You forecast YES or NO with play points. Each forecast unit scores 100 points if it is right and nothing if it is wrong.

The live number is set by an automated crowd-estimate mechanic. A call shown at 30 points means the crowd thinks there is a 30% chance, and your forecast nudges that estimate. The crowd estimate is not an official forecast and should not replace weather warnings or meteorological guidance.

Everyone starts with 10,000 points. Forecasts are held to settlement; there is no cash value and no early cash-out.

Weather Markets can fund a fixed monthly donation to climate resilience causes. The donation is made by the site, never paid to players, and never redeemable for points. Community play may help choose or allocate between vetted causes, but the donation does not depend on bad weather happening or on anyone losing points.

Markets close at midnight local time, before the day they are about to describe. This is deliberate — if you could trade while the weather was happening, a radar tab would beat forecasting.

The next morning, each market settles against the Open-Meteo historical archive, and nothing else. If the archive has not published yet, the market stays pending and retries. It is never settled from a different source, because sources disagree by a tenth of a degree and that is enough to flip a result.

Thresholds are set from the forecast so each market opens near a 50/50 split, not to dodge the line — Open-Meteo reports at a tenth of a degree, so a reading can land exactly on 24.5°C, exactly on 45 km/h, whatever the threshold is. When it does, the market resolves NO: “top 24.5°C” and “above 45 km/h” mean strictly more than the number, not equal to it, so an exact match doesn’t win.

Ranked by return on your starting points, not raw total, and you need at least 10 settled markets to appear. Both rules exist to stop someone farming the top spot with fresh accounts.

There are no top-ups and no resets. If your balance hits zero and you hold no open positions, that account is finished — you start again with a new username and a clean record. Holding an unsettled position that might still pay out does not count as being out.